Opec+ is set to endorse a production quota increase of approximately 188,000 barrels per day starting in September, after which it intends to halt any additional output increases, according to sources. This decision comes as the group finalises the unwinding of voluntary cuts. The seven core members of Opec+ – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman – have been increasing monthly production quotas for the majority of this year. Those increases have largely remained theoretical, as the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine have disrupted exports from the Gulf, Russia, and Kazakhstan.
Following September, the group is expected to halt output increases for the remainder of the year, according to one Opec+ delegate and one Opec+ source, as the alliance confronts potentially challenging discussions regarding new production quotas. The September increase would finalise a gradual reduction of a 1.65 million bpd supply cut initially agreed upon in 2023, at a time when the group still encompassed the United Arab Emirates, which exited Opec in May. Opec+ is conducting a review of the oil production capacity of its members, which will inform the output baselines for 2027, serving as the foundation for quota determinations.
The pause following September would maintain approximately 2 million barrels per day of Opec+ reductions established in 2022 until the coalition determines the allocation of supplementary supply among its members. Some members of the group, including Iraq, are advocating for increased individual quotas to better align with their enhanced production capacity.