US Stocks Hold Near Records as Weak Retail Sales Ease Fed Rate Hike Bets

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The major U.S. index futures are currently indicating a relatively unchanged opening on Friday, suggesting that stocks may exhibit a lack of clear direction in early trading after the upward movement observed in the preceding two sessions. Traders might pause to evaluate the recent vigour in the markets, which propelled the S&P 500 to a historic intraday peak exceeding 7,800 during Thursday’s session. The broad market index concluded yesterday’s trading session at a record closing high, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq achieved its highest closing level in over two months. The futures exhibited minimal variation despite the Commerce Department’s report indicating an unforeseen drop in U.S. retail sales for July. The Commerce Department reported a decline in retail sales of 0.6 percent for July, following a modest increase of 0.2 percent in June. Retail sales were anticipated by economists to increase by 0.1 percent. The unexpected decrease in retail sales was partly due to a notable decline in sales by motor vehicle and parts dealers, which fell by 1.8 percent in July following a 2.4 percent increase in June.

However, excluding the decline in auto sales, retail sales experienced a decrease of 0.3 percent in July, following a reduction of 0.2 percent in June. Ex-auto sales were projected to rise by 0.2 percent. Stocks exhibited a predominantly upward trajectory during Thursday’s trading, contributing to the modest increases recorded in the previous session on Wednesday. The major averages all moved to the upside on the day, with the S&P 500 reaching a new record closing high. The Nasdaq led the way higher, advancing 214.54 points or 0.8 percent to a two-month closing high of 26,803.03. The S&P 500 advanced by 50.49 points, reflecting a 0.7 percent increase, reaching 7,798.99. In contrast, the Dow experienced a more subdued rise, increasing by 69.72 points or 0.1 percent, to settle at 53,839.99. The strength observed on Wall Street followed the release of a report by the Labour Department, which indicated that producer prices in the U.S. unexpectedly remained unchanged in July.

The Labour Department reported that its producer price index for final demand remained stable in July, following a downward revision of 0.1 percent in June. Economists had anticipated an increase in producer prices of 0.2 percent, in contrast to the previously reported decline of 0.3 percent for the prior month. The report indicated that the annual rate of growth in producer prices decelerated to 4.7 percent in July, down from 5.5 percent in June. The annual rate of growth was anticipated to decelerate to 4.9 percent. In conjunction with yesterday’s report indicating a modest increase in consumer prices and last Friday’s unexpected decline in employment figures, the data has contributed to a more optimistic perspective regarding the trajectory of interest rates. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve increasing rates by a quarter point at its upcoming meeting in September has decreased to 34.6 percent from 55.0 percent just a week prior.

Stocks experienced a boost following a significant decline in crude oil prices, as U.S. crude oil futures fell by 2.4 percent during the day. Crude oil prices faced downward pressure as concerns regarding the demand outlook eclipsed the supply issues stemming from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Computer hardware stocks continued their upward trajectory observed in recent sessions, as the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index surged by 4.7 percent, reaching a new record closing high. Significant strength was also evident among software stocks, as indicated by the 2 percent increase in the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index. Telecom, transportation, and commercial real estate stocks exhibited significant strength, whereas gold stocks faced pressure due to a decline in the price of the precious metal.