President Donald Trump assured voters in 2024 that a return to the White House would result in a significant increase in blue-collar job opportunities through his policies. “We’re going to have a manufacturing boom,” Trump stated. Trump asserted that his policies would draw in “energy-hungry industries,” resulting in the creation of “millions and millions of blue-collar jobs and jobs of every type.” As his initial calendar year in office comes to a close, the anticipated surge in blue-collar employment has not materialized. Industries that depend on manual labor are, if anything, reducing their workforce rather than expanding it, a trend attributed by economists, at least in part, to the president’s historic and volatile tariff policy. The most recent jobs published on Tuesday, indicates that the majority of sectors typically classified as blue collar have experienced a reduction in workforce size. “You can’t say the economy is doing really well if these jobs aren’t growing alongside it,” stated Hardika Singh.
For instance, the transportation and warehousing sector has experienced job reductions in each of the past three months. The industry has experienced a decline of approximately 17,200 jobs on average during the last three months, as reported. Payrolls in the mining and logging sectors have decreased by an average of 2,000 over the last three months. Even manufacturing, the sector targeted by the president’s tariffs for enhancement, is experiencing job reductions. In November, manufacturing employment experienced a decline of 5,000, reaching its lowest point since March 2022, amidst the ongoing recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. Manufacturing employment has declined for seven consecutive months, a trend that has persisted since the implementation of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, which significantly impacted market and raised concerns among Corporate America. Among the few positive developments for blue-collar employment, construction stands out, having added a robust 28,000 jobs in November. Following a reduction in workforce earlier this year, the construction sector is currently experiencing an average increase of 17,333 jobs over the last three months.
There is no definitive criterion that delineates what constitutes a blue-collar job; however, conventionally, these roles are characterized by manual labor or skilled trades, including the operation of machinery and the construction of infrastructure. Officials from the Trump administration continue to prioritize the creation of blue-collar employment opportunities. As recently as June, the White House asserted that Trump’s tax and spending cut law, the One Big Beautiful Bill, would “unleash our economy and deliver a Blue-Collar BOOM.” Officials from the Trump administration have pointed to wage growth among blue-collar workers as a demonstration of the effectiveness of his economic policies. In June, the White House reported that real wages (after adjusting for inflation) for hourly workers rose by nearly 2% during the first five months of the president’s second term, marking the largest increase of its kind under any administration in nearly 60 years. Various factors are identified by economists as contributing to the pressure on blue-collar jobs, including trade policy, elevated borrowing costs, automation, and a deficiency of skilled workers. While elevated tariffs on imports to the United States aim to facilitate the return of manufacturing jobs to the country, the realization of this objective may require considerable time – if it materializes at all. “Reshoring is not an instantaneous process.” The occurrence does not transpire within a timeframe of six or seven months. “It takes several years,” stated Michael Reid. Trump has imposed tariffs on essential imports required by US manufacturers, such as steel, aluminum, and copper. Uncertainty surrounding trade policy, coupled with escalating import prices affecting the goods utilized by blue-collar workers, is negatively impacting the demand for labor. “When input costs rise, a common response is to reduce labor,” stated Reid. Singh observed that blue-collar workers depend on small businesses, which are currently facing significant challenges due to inflation and elevated interest rates. AI is also transforming the methods of work execution, with certain positions in manufacturing and construction undergoing automation,” she stated. Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research, indicated that the impact on blue-collar jobs signifies a tariff-induced deceleration in the cyclical sectors of the economy. “These are the sectors tied to tariffs,” Roth stated.
In contrast, an industry that remains relatively insulated from tariffs and economic fluctuations is experiencing a significant surge in hiring: health care. In November, employment within the health care and social assistance sector experienced an increase of 64,000, following a rise of 64,600 in October. In a broader perspective, this sector of the economy has contributed nearly 800,000 jobs in the last year, fueled by robust demand in health care, which is largely influenced by the aging demographic. There is optimism among blue-collar workers, as some anticipate a potential rebound may be imminent. Roth anticipates an acceleration in job growth within blue-collar sectors as the initial impact of tariffs diminishes. “Boom might be an optimistic term,” she stated. “However, it is evident that these sectors appear more favorable, not due to a resurgence of manufacturing in the US, but rather because the effects of the tariff shock will diminish over time.” The implications are significant for households and regional economies. “If you can’t find a job nearby, or the one you have isn’t keeping up with inflation, it affects people’s ability to provide for their families,” she stated. “It’s not merely a matter of figures — it reflects the sentiments of communities experiencing pressure.”