The US government has resumed operations after its most extended shutdown to date, paving the way for the forthcoming dissemination of essential federal data that is vital for assessing the condition and direction of the nation’s economy. Data enthusiasts, along with government officials, Federal Reserve policymakers, business owners, and indeed all stakeholders, have reason to celebrate! Beginning next week, the accumulation of federal data will commence, and the much-anticipated September jobs report, initially scheduled for release on October 3, is set to be published on Thursday, November 20, as per sources. “It’s been like flying in fog without any instrumentation,” remarked Mark Zandi.
The 43-day shutdown has resulted in an unprecedented scenario: Certain datapoints were not collected at their usual intervals, heightening the likelihood of significant gaps in what is anticipated to be already convoluted data. Due to the government’s inactivity throughout October and the initial days of November, numerous reports containing data gathered in September and anticipated for release in the following weeks were not published, with the sole exception of the Consumer Price Index. Additionally, data for October was not collected, which will be addressed shortly. Additional significant reports anticipated – presumably at different stages of finalization – encompass September figures on wholesale inflation, import and export prices, quarterly employment costs, annual consumer expenditures, retail sales, gross domestic product, and consumer spending. The primary statistical agencies are currently revising their timelines for economic releases, a schedule established over a year prior. Nonetheless, the process is not merely a matter of inserting reports into various dates. Numerous releases depend on data derived from alternative series. For instance, the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index data contribute to the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, which subsequently influences GDP. The statistical arm of the Commerce Department responsible for estimating GDP and generating data on income, spending, foreign trade, and state and economies, announced that it is “working to update its schedule of economic releases” and is in consultation with the Census Bureau, BLS, and other data suppliers utilized in the production of the BEA’s indicators.
On Friday afternoon, the reports disclosed updated release dates for three reports that were initially scheduled for publication in early October. Next week, the data for August regarding construction spending, manufacturers’ shipments, and international trade will be published on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, respectively. Each economic data series will experience varying impacts from the shutdown, contingent upon the methods, timing, and sources of data collection, stated Erica Groshen. She observed that the BLS and other agencies are likely to focus on Principal Federal Economic Indicators, which encompass approximately three dozen key statistical series that characterize the state of the US economy. The jobs report, CPI, PPI, and PCE are included in this category. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, for instance, is not). During the shutdown, the nation’s statistical agencies operated with minimal staff, leading to the suspension of data collection, analysis, and dissemination. This disruption affected the well-established processes that have supported significant economic reports for decades. The jobs report consists of two surveys: one targeting businesses and the other focusing on households. The establishment survey is predominantly automated, utilizing online portals for businesses to report their data, including workforce levels and compensation. The household survey, conversely, is predominantly carried out through telephone interviews and in-person visits. “It’s very hard to ask people what their situation was five weeks ago, and it’s bound to be unreliable,” stated Gregory Daco. “It is my belief that a portion of the employment report for October will be irretrievably lost, and we will only receive the data that companies choose to submit.”
The household survey serves as the basis for labor force estimates and the unemployment rate. Given that it was not conducted in October, “we’re going to get half the employment report,” stated Kevin Hassett on Thursday. “We will achieve the jobs component, however, the unemployment rate will remain elusive.” The absence of a comprehensive monthly employment overview is less than optimal, particularly as the US labor market faced a shutdown under precarious conditions. Nevertheless, a preliminary understanding of the trend can still be constructed by integrating payroll estimates with a selection of private hiring data, alongside state-level unemployment claims and layoff announcements, noted Mike Reid on Thursday. According to Reid, two-thirds of the pricing data that contributes to the CPI is gathered through in-person visits to physical retail establishments. In October, wholesale-level prices were not gathered for the Producer Price Index. This will subsequently influence the PCE price index, which is comprised of approximately 90% derived from CPI and PPI inputs, he noted.
“In contrast to the labor market, there are limited (if any) dependable substitutes for the CPI report,” he stated. “In the absence of the CPI and PPI reports, assessing the trajectory of inflation becomes challenging.” The forthcoming release of the October inflation data may present a significant challenge regarding data quality, as it is expected to rely more extensively on imputation—a technique that employs various existing datapoints to fill in gaps in the information. “However, it is already understood that when statistical agencies possess all the available data, a considerable degree of uncertainty exists, and at times the figures may not be statistically significant,” stated Daco from EY-Parthenon in an interview. “Thus, with a reduction in data availability, the statistical significance of these figures is expected to diminish even more.” The shutdown persisted for almost half of November, indicating that the data for this month will also be affected, according to economists. Nonetheless, there is a strong expectation that all significant reports will be published. RBC’s Reid observed that there is an increased probability that inflation data will exhibit a higher degree of imputations. The timing and staffing levels of returning BLS employees may influence the data collection process, including the household survey for the jobs report, according to Groshen. “BLS has fewer resources this time, because it is down 20% in its staffing, one-third of its leadership positions are vacant, and it’s possible they had even more people quit during the course of the shutdown,” she said, referencing the Trump administration’s large-scale layoff of federal workers earlier this year via the Department of Government Efficiency. Nevertheless, although there is a possibility that the household surveys conducted in November might encompass inquiries pertaining to October, it is deemed improbable, as she pointed out, considering the existing staffing constraints and the substantial data backlog confronting statistical agencies. “The interviews are conducted in a highly orchestrated manner, making the simultaneous administration of surveys problematic,” she stated. “It would not be unexpected if the Census Bureau and BLS concluded that they are unable to conduct the October household survey once more.”
In such a scenario, it is conceivable that the BLS might derive the October unemployment rate by analyzing the data from September and November, she indicated. Reports characterized by “noise” are not uncommon for significant economic indicators like the jobs report. Significant disruptions, even those deemed relatively brief, tend to imprint on data for extended periods (or, as observed during the Covid-19 pandemic, for years). In October 2024, a month marked by the occurrence of two significant deadly hurricanes and extensive labor strikes, the preliminary employment report indicated a net increase of merely 12,000 jobs – a stark contrast to the 223,000-job increase observed in September. Following the return of striking workers and those affected by adverse weather conditions in November, the jobs report for that month indicated an increase of 227,000 jobs created. Upon the release of the October 2025 jobs report, projections indicate substantial job losses, potentially amounting to 1.5 million positions, as estimated by RBC’s Reid, primarily attributed to federal workers absent from payrolls. With the shutdown concluding in the week that encompasses the 12th of the month – the timeframe utilized by the BLS for employment calculations – the November jobs report is expected to reflect the reintegration of those employees and contractors into payrolls. Nonetheless, the shutdown obstructed the nation’s statistical processes, and it may require several weeks for all operations to be organized and functioning efficiently once more.
“It’ll likely be the February period, where we get the January data, before we get our first real clean look at the US macroeconomic data,” stated Joe Brusuelas. “Thus, a cost is incurred regarding both the volume and the caliber of the data we will receive until the onset of early winter 2026.” The privately produced data offered insights into what the federal data might reveal; however, should those expectations not materialize, there exists the possibility of significant volatility in the markets, according to Zandi of Moody’s Analytics. “If they achieve the target, and that’s what they indicate, then there are no negative consequences,” he stated. “If the numbers, however, deviate from our expectations – whether positively or negatively – this could potentially challenge the Federal Reserve’s policy implemented since the shutdown.” US stocks experienced their most significant decline in a month on Thursday and continued to trend downward on Friday as traders processed the information regarding the government’s reopening. Investors prepared for a series of data releases scheduled to occur in rapid succession. “I say this only half-jokingly: Maybe because the government is opening up again, the market took a dive,” stated Ed Yardeni. “During the government shutdown, we were free to hold any beliefs we wished to entertain.” It is imperative that we adopt a data-dependent approach, which may not necessarily be the most enjoyable endeavor.