President Donald Trump is set to reveal his selection for the next chair of the Federal Reserve on Friday morning. Among the finalists is an individual who fulfills numerous criteria: BlackRock executive Rick Rieder. The prominent investor commands the respect of market and possesses extensive knowledge of intricate financial markets. Rieder is thought to favor reduced interest rates, a key objective for a president advocating for substantial rate reductions. Rieder certainly embodies the role. His frequent television appearances are resonating positively within the White House. It is not surprising that Rieder has ascended to the forefront of the Fed chair candidate rankings on prediction markets in recent days. That changed Thursday night, when Trump indicated that his selection would not be unexpected, asserting that “a lot of people think that this person could have been there a few years ago.” This strongly indicates that former Fed official Kevin Warsh, a contender for the Fed chair position in 2017, was ultimately overlooked when Trump selected the current Fed Chair, Jerome Powell. Warsh visited the White House on Thursday, shortly following Trump’s characterization of Powell as a “moron.” However, it certainly does not exclude Rieder, who continues to hold more favorable odds on the prediction market Kalshi compared to White House economist Kevin Hassett and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Nonetheless, certain previous remarks by Rieder regarding Trump’s policy priorities, his absence of governmental experience, and his financial contributions to critics of Trump may hinder his candidacy for this influential role.
Rieder, an unexpected candidate for the Fed position, has previously expressed criticism of one of Trump’s hallmark legislative accomplishments during his initial term: the reduction of the corporate tax rate to 21%. “I believe 21% is insufficient,” Rieder stated in March 2021. The BlackRock executive contended that the advantages for businesses are “too high,” highlighting that numerous corporations have utilized their tax savings to provide substantial rewards to shareholders through significant share buybacks. In the course of the 2020 campaign, Joe Biden put forth a proposal to increase the corporate tax rate. Rieder stated that the US economy could “definitely” endure an increase in the corporate tax rate. “I would imagine he didn’t bring that up during his interview at the White House,” remarked Stephanie Roth. It remains uncertain whether Rieder continues to support an increase in the corporate tax rate, a matter over which the Fed chair has no direct influence. A spokesperson for BlackRock refrained from providing any commentary regarding Rieder’s remarks made five years ago. In the 2021 interview, Rieder minimized the inflation concerns that were emerging at that moment. He indicated that inflation might rise to approximately 2.5%, yet emphasized that he was not concerned about any “explosive” price increases. Rieder’s remarks aligned him with the prevailing consensus among economists and Federal Reserve officials who anticipated that inflation would not evolve into a lasting issue. By June 2022, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, disrupted supply chains, and substantial federal stimulus measures, inflation surged to a four-decade peak of 9.1%.
Rieder may also hold some policy divergences from Trump regarding another key issue: immigration. In April 2023, Rieder expressed support for a position that starkly contrasts with Trump’s current immigration crackdown. Rieder, reflecting the views of numerous mainstream economists, asserted that the United States requires an increase in foreign-born workers to counterbalance the retiring baby boomer population. “In most economies around the world, you need immigration,” Rieder stated during a Morningstar podcast. He highlighted airlines, hotels, and other firms that “can’t operate at full capacity” due to their “inability to find sufficient labor.” Rieder stated “With an aging population and, as I mentioned, without immigration, it’s quite challenging to address that.” Indeed, US job growth experienced a significant deceleration last year, partly attributable to a marked decline in the supply of workers, a consequence of the intensified deportation efforts under the Trump administration. In stark opposition to Rieder’s assertions supporting immigration, the White House recently celebrated negative net migration in 2025 – a development not seen in fifty years – as one of Trump’s “365 wins” during his initial 365 days back in office. “For the first time in 50 years, we are now seeing reverse migration,” Trump stated last week during a White House briefing. In recent years, Rieder has made contributions to Democratic figures such as House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, Sen. Cory Booker, and former Sens. Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown, as indicated by federal filings. The BlackRock executive has also contributed to Republican candidates, including those who oppose Trump, such as Nikki Haley, Jeb Bush, and former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan.
Undoubtedly, campaign donations bear little relevance to Rieder’s capacity to fulfill the responsibilities of the Fed chair. However, they may undermine his position at the White House, considering the current hyper-partisan landscape, Trump’s track record of retaliating against those he perceives as adversaries, and his inclination to appoint a loyalist to the role. Larry Kudlow criticized Rieder’s contributions to “the never-Trumper” Haley and “ultra-left-wing” Democrats earlier this week. “Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett grasp the principles of Trumponomics.” They may operate independently yet recognize that the supply-side economic boom does not lead to inflation. Uncertainty surrounds Rick Rieder, as noted by Kudlow in a column for The New York Sun. In response to inquiries regarding Rieder’s previous campaign contributions, White House spokesman Kush Desai stated that Trump will reveal his selection for the Fed “at the appropriate juncture. Any and all reporting on the Federal Reserve Chairman nominations process until then is a waste of everyone’s time,” Desai stated. In contrast to Warsh and Hassett, Rieder’s resume reveals a significant absence: a deficiency in government experience. Former Fed official Vincent Reinhart notes that every one of the 10 Fed chairs since 1935 has held a prior position within the executive branch. Powell, for instance, served in the Treasury Department during the George H. W. Bush administration, while former Fed Chair Janet Yellen held a prominent economist position in the Clinton White House. Rieder’s absence of governmental experience may exacerbate the learning curve should he assume the position.
Conversely, this divergence from previous Federal Reserve selections may enhance Rieder’s appeal to Trump, who has shown a willingness to challenge established conventions. Ultimately, neither Trump nor a significant number of his Cabinet selections possessed prior experience in government. Ed Mills, a Washington policy analyst at Raymond James, indicated that Rieder’s previous roles and campaign contributions might lead to “awkward moments” in the event of a confirmation hearing. “But is there definitive evidence?” “Not yet,” Mills stated. “For Trump, the presence of an individual with private sector experience represents a significant advantage. Rieder is recognized and esteemed in financial circles. The market invariably scrutinizes the new Fed chair. Mills stated that Trump understands the necessity of a robust economy and stable markets for Republicans to mitigate unfavorable results in the midterm elections this November. The reality is that there may not be an ideal candidate who fulfills all the criteria that Trump is seeking in a Fed chair. For instance, Hassett advocates for lower rates, yet some on market perceive him as excessively loyal to Trump – a stance that could potentially disrupt the bond market. Waller and Warsh command respect among investors; however, their independence might not align with Trump’s preferences. “The issue lies in the fact that none of the candidates possess all the traits that Trump desires: loyalty, a dovish stance, and credibility with the markets,” Roth stated.