It has been nearly two dozen days since a federal agency published an economic report. The shutdown of the US government has led to a significant lack of access to essential data, complicating an already unclear economic perspective. On Friday morning, a shift is anticipated, if only momentarily, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to unveil the Consumer Price Index report for September. The September CPI will provide valuable insights for those seeking data, offering a glimpse into the current trends of prices affecting Americans. The report stands as a unique instance: BLS staff returned to the office this month to enable the government to fulfill statutory obligations in adjusting Social Security payments for the upcoming year. The September CPI serves as the last crucial data point required for the 2026 cost of living adjustment. Following the release of the CPI, a veil of uncertainty will once again shroud federal economic data until the government resumes operations.
Economists anticipate that the most recent data will reveal a notable increase in prices for a range of frequently bought goods and services, rising at a rate of 0.4% last month, which is faster than usual. This would elevate the annual inflation rate from 2.9% to 3.1% – marking the swiftest increase in over a year. The upswing can be attributed to several factors, including higher gas prices, increased food costs, goods affected by tariffs, and a slower-than-expected decrease in inflation within the services sector, particularly in housing. Michael Pugliese, senior economist at Wells Fargo, noted in an interview, “It’s helpful to remember that the last time inflation was below 2% was in February 2021.” He added, “At the macro level, it’s a reminder of how sticky inflation can be when it gets out of the tube and how hard it is to get back to that 2% once it’s been above target for a while.”
American consumers have endured almost five years of prices increasing at an unusually rapid pace (with prices soaring significantly faster than normal for two of those years). However, years of elevated inflation have had a significant impact. Food prices, for example, have risen 24% between 2020 and 2024, as noted by Billy Roberts. “We’ve seen smaller degrees of inflation, even over the course of this year, but it’s really that cumulative effect,” he said. In August, grocery prices surged by 0.6%, marking the highest monthly increase in almost three years, as per reports. Economists anticipate that the September gain will be more subdued; nonetheless, specific categories are expected to underscore areas of concern. Beef prices have surged significantly in recent years, driven by a reduction in herds due to extended drought conditions. Cocoa and coffee prices, already elevated due to climate change impacting supply, are now encountering additional pressures from tariffs.
Roberts highlighted the impact on consumers preparing for trick-or-treaters, stating that cocoa prices are “still about double, if not triple, what they were in 2022-’23. Those aren’t items that consumers necessarily buy week in and week out,” but they’re buying in bulk now for Halloween, he said. “Those prices are going to provide a lot of sticker shock for consumers.” Food prices continue to be a significant concern for many Americans, as do rising electricity prices, Joe Brusuelas. Brusuelas highlighted that he will also be keeping an eye on services-related inflation, including airfare and other discretionary sectors, to assess whether it continues to remain stubbornly high. “What I am concerned about is the sticky and stubborn service sector costs along with rising food and utility prices, which are really placing stress on middle-class and down-market households,” he said. “And this is a function of that greater discussion around the K-shaped economy, where 40% of this country is thriving.” A recent analysis revealed that the nation’s highest earners, who have profited from a booming stock market, escalating wages, and enhanced housing wealth, are contributing an even larger portion of total spending. “Down market,” Brusuelas added, “it’s a very different reality.”